000 03903nam a22005175i 4500
001 978-0-387-28392-0
003 DE-He213
005 20161121230926.0
007 cr nn 008mamaa
008 100301s2005 xxu| s |||| 0|eng d
020 _a9780387283920
_9978-0-387-28392-0
024 7 _a10.1007/0-387-28392-7
_2doi
050 4 _aHB848-3697
072 7 _aJHBD
_2bicssc
072 7 _aSOC006000
_2bisacsh
082 0 4 _a304.6
_223
100 1 _aAlho, Juha M.
_eauthor.
245 1 0 _aStatistical Demography and Forecasting
_h[electronic resource] /
_cby Juha M. Alho, Bruce D. Spencer.
264 1 _aNew York, NY :
_bSpringer New York,
_c2005.
300 _aXXVIII, 412 p. 34 illus.
_bonline resource.
336 _atext
_btxt
_2rdacontent
337 _acomputer
_bc
_2rdamedia
338 _aonline resource
_bcr
_2rdacarrier
347 _atext file
_bPDF
_2rda
490 1 _aSpringer Series in Statistics,
_x0172-7397
505 0 _aSources of Demographic Data -- Sampling Designs and Inference -- Waiting Times and Their Statistical Estimation -- Regression Models for Counts and Survival -- Multistate Models and Cohort-Component Book-Keeping -- Approaches to Forecasting Demographic Rates -- Uncertainty in Demographic Forecasts: Concepts, Issues, and Evidence -- Statistical Propagation of Error in Forecasting -- Errors in Census Numbers -- Financial Applications -- Decision Analysis and Small Area Estimates.
520 _aSustainability of pension systems, intergeneration fiscal equity under population aging, and accounting for health care benefits for future retirees are examples of problems that cannot be solved without understanding the nature of population forecasts and their uncertainty. Similarly, the accuracy of population estimates directly affects both the distributions of formula-based government allocations to sub-national units and the apportionment of political representation. The book develops the statistical foundation for addressing such issues. Areas covered include classical mathematical demography, event history methods, multi-state methods, stochastic population forecasting, sampling and census coverage, and decision theory. The methods are illustrated with empirical applications from Europe and the U.S. For statisticians the book provides a unique introduction to demographic problems in a familiar language. For demographers, actuaries, epidemiologists, and professionals in related fields, the book presents a unified statistical outlook on both classical methods of demography and recent developments. To facilitate its classroom use, exercises are included. Over half of the book is readily accessible to undergraduates, but more maturity may be required to benefit fully from the complete text. Knowledge of differential and integral calculus, matrix algebra, basic probability theory, and regression analysis is assumed. Juha M. Alho is Professor of Statistics, University of Joensuu, Finland, and Bruce D. Spencer is Professor of Statistics and Faculty Fellow at the Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University. Both have contributed extensively to statistical demography and served in advisory roles and as statistical consultants in the field.
650 0 _aSocial sciences.
650 0 _aEpidemiology.
650 0 _aStatistics.
650 0 _aPopulation.
650 0 _aDemography.
650 1 4 _aSocial Sciences.
650 2 4 _aDemography.
650 2 4 _aEpidemiology.
650 2 4 _aPopulation Economics.
650 2 4 _aStatistical Theory and Methods.
700 1 _aSpencer, Bruce D.
_eauthor.
710 2 _aSpringerLink (Online service)
773 0 _tSpringer eBooks
776 0 8 _iPrinted edition:
_z9780387235301
830 0 _aSpringer Series in Statistics,
_x0172-7397
856 4 0 _uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/0-387-28392-7
912 _aZDB-2-SMA
950 _aMathematics and Statistics (Springer-11649)
999 _c506010
_d506010