000			04294nam a22005775i 4500
001			978-3-540-35262-4
003			DE-He213
005			20161121230903.0
007			cr nn 008mamaa
008			100301s2006 gw | s |||| 0|eng d
020			_a9783540352624 _9978-3-540-35262-4
024	7		_a10.1007/3-540-35262-7 _2doi
050		4	_aHB71-74
072		7	_aKC _2bicssc
072		7	_aBUS000000 _2bisacsh
082	0	4	_a330 _223
100	1		_aMarti, Kurt. _eauthor.
245	1	0	_aCoping with Uncertainty _h[electronic resource] : _bModeling and Policy Issues / _cby Kurt Marti, Yuri Ermoliev, Marek Makowski, Georg Pflug.
264		1	_aBerlin, Heidelberg : _bSpringer Berlin Heidelberg, _c2006.
300			_aXIII, 330 p. 56 illus. _bonline resource.
336			_atext _btxt _2rdacontent
337			_acomputer _bc _2rdamedia
338			_aonline resource _bcr _2rdacarrier
347			_atext file _bPDF _2rda
490	1		_aLecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, _x0075-8442 ; _v581
505	0		_aUncertainty and Decisions -- Facets of Robust Decisions -- Stress Testing via Contamination -- Structured Modeling for Coping with Uncertainty in Complex Problems -- Modeling Stochastic Uncertainty -- Using Monte Carlo Simulation to Treat Physical Uncertainties in Structural Reliability -- Explicit Methods for the Computation of Structural Reliabilities in Stochastic Plastic Analysis -- Statistical Analysis of Catastrophic Events -- Scene Interpretation Using Bayesian Network Fragments -- Non-Probabilistic Uncertainty -- General Equilibrium Models with Discrete Choices in a Spatial Continuum -- Sequential Downscaling Methods for Estimation from Aggregate Data -- Optimal Control for a Class of Uncertain Systems -- Uncertainties in Medical Processes Control -- Applications of Stochastic Optimization -- Impacts of Uncertainty and Increasing Returns on Sustainable Energy Development and Climate Change: A Stochastic Optimization Approach -- Stochasticity in Electric Energy Systems Planning -- Stochastic Programming Based PERT Modeling -- Towards Implementable Nonlinear Stochastic Programming -- Policy Issues Under Uncertainty -- Endogenous Risks and Learning in Climate Change Decision Analysis -- Pricing Related Projects -- Precaution: The Willingness to Accept Costs to Avert Uncertain Danger.
520			_aOngoing global changes bring fundamentally new scientific problems requiring new concepts and tools. A key issue concerns a vast variety of practically irreducible uncertainties, which challenge our traditional models and require new concepts and analytical tools. The uncertainty critically dominantes, e.g., the climate change debates. In short, the dilemma is concerned with enormous costs vs. massive uncertainties of potential extreme impacts. Traditional scientific approaches usually rely on real observations and experiments. Yet no sufficient observations exist for new problems, and "pure" experiments and learning by doing may be very expensive, dangerous, or simply impossible. In addition, available historical observations are contaminated by actions, policies. The complexity of new problems does not allow to achieve enough certainty by increasing the resolution of models or by bringing in more links. Hence, new tools for modeling and management of uncertainty are needed, as given in this book.
650		0	_aOperations research.
650		0	_aDecision making.
650		0	_aMathematics.
650		0	_aMathematical optimization.
650		0	_aComputational intelligence.
650		0	_aEconomics.
650		0	_aManagement science.
650	1	4	_aEconomics.
650	2	4	_aEconomics, general.
650	2	4	_aMathematics, general.
650	2	4	_aOperation Research/Decision Theory.
650	2	4	_aOptimization.
650	2	4	_aComputational Intelligence.
700	1		_aErmoliev, Yuri. _eauthor.
700	1		_aMakowski, Marek. _eauthor.
700	1		_aPflug, Georg. _eauthor.
710	2		_aSpringerLink (Online service)
773	0		_tSpringer eBooks
776	0	8	_iPrinted edition: _z9783540352587
830		0	_aLecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, _x0075-8442 ; _v581
856	4	0	_uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/3-540-35262-7
912			_aZDB-2-SBE
950			_aBusiness and Economics (Springer-11643)
999			_c505434 _d505434